Is A $75 Million U.S. Opening Weekend Good Enough For ‘Fantastic Beasts’?

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It might just be me, but I don’t think there’s that much hype surrounding this new cinematic addition to J.K. Rowling‘s wizarding world. And if the early tracking for the prequel/spinoff prove anything, I might not be alone in that assessment. Granted, that’s still a solid opening weekend (it’s similar to the high end of Dr. Strange‘s tracking numbers), but for a film associated with the Harry Potter franchise, it’s definitely on the low end of expectations.

So why do I find these early numbers for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them to be disappointing? I think for me it’s the fact that going into the year, this film was easily one of my most anticipated (as it was for many others). But now coming into the homestretch, it seems like no one, myself included, really cares about it. The trailers I’ve seen (full of unfinished CGI) have done nothing for me and are somewhat bland. Not only that, but the fact that David Yates, arguably the strongest filmmaker the franchise has seen, is at helm and I still feel unsure about this installment is quite concerning. As someone who grew up with the Harry Potter movies, I really should be looking forward to this one more than I am.

I’m not sure if it’s just Warner Bros. lack of marketing or just a sub-par product in general, but Fantastic Beasts just doesn’t seem like a movie that will latch onto audiences like the other films in this franchise did. The fact that Warner Bros. had to re-release the Harry Potter films in theaters to generate buzz for this film is also a telling sign that they aren’t so sure about the future prospects of this spinoff series (despite already announcing four more films). That being said, seeing The Goblet of Fire and The Deathly Hallows back on the big screen again was a treat, so there’s that.

But, if you look at it from the standpoint that it really isn’t a Harry Potter film but instead an untested fantasy property with actors that aren’t exactly A-listers, that opening weekend number does look solid. It’s just the fact that many people, including WB, won’t be looking at it that way and truth be told, the marketing for the film hasn’t been working at all. So unless the film turns out great (which I really hope it does), expect this to be the lowest grossing film in the series, very much so if adjusting the others for inflation. Again, not necessarily a bad number to start with, but sometimes expectations can be a bitch.

Also, here’s the new IMAX poster for the film below.normal_fb-imax-poster.jpg

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is set to be released on November 18th.

Box Office Monthly Review: May 2014

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Despite the fact that May had a lot of highly anticipated summer blockbusters and managed to cross the $1 billion mark for the fourth year in a row, this May was the lowest grossing that it has ever been since 2010. Don’t believe me? Well, the only film released in this last month that will easily cross the $200 million mark is X-Men: Days of Future Past, the seventh film in the long-running franchise.

Leading the way with grosses, but also probably the most disappointing of the bunch, was The Amazing Spider-Man 2. As of right now, it has around $193 million, which is around $54 million behind were The Amazing Spider-Man at this same point back in 2012. I think it’s safe to say that the Spider-Man has fallen off quite a bit. Sony might want to seriously consider making a deal to feature Spider-Man in the Avengers films, because it’s quite sad when a franchise that was once a juggernaut at the box office is now unable to outgross Thor: The Dark World.

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Now onto Godzilla. After its phenomenal $93 million opening weekend gross, many were claiming how the film would be able to gross around $250 million when it was all said and done. Well, that was before they saw the film’s massive 67% drop in its second weekend. Now, the film will be struggling to reach $200 million, which is pretty embarrassing. That would mean that it managed to make half of its grosses on its opening weekend. Talk about front-loaded.

Like I said earlier, the only film that will comfortably cross the $200 million mark is X-Men: Days of Future Past. Many have called this installment yet another disappointment financially, but I don’t see that at all. Considering that the last two films managed to gross below $150 million and that this franchise was considered to be DOA, Days of Future Past opened much larger than I thought it was going to. And even if it doesn’t match X-Men: The Last Stand‘s final gross ($234 million), it’s still a win for the X-Men franchise.

What many people are claiming to be the “winner” this past month at the box office was the frat comedy Neighbors. The film has done a pretty good job, considering how it also fell off pretty far after its opening weekend (noticing a trend?). Other comedies in May failed to make much of an impression. Blended has only made $30 million after two weeks, and I’ll be surprised if A Million Ways to Die in the West even grosses much more than that. Meanwhile, Maleficent performed decently its opening weekend, but I doubt it’ll make its way over $200 million. But you never know. It might hold well this next weekend.

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My Predictions vs. The Results
(My predictions can be found HERE)

“Final” numbers are predictions on how far they’ll actually make, not actually final yet.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2
My Prediction (Opening Weekend): $112.1 million
Actual Result (Opening Weekend): $91.6 million
My Prediction (Final): $275.7 million
Actual Result (Final): $200 million

Neighbors
My Prediction: (Opening Weekend): $33.8 million
Actual Result: (Opening Weekend): $49.0 million
My Prediction: (Final): $125.9 million
Actual Result: (Final): $150 million

Godzilla
My Prediction (Opening Weekend): $76.0 million
Actual Result: (Opening Weekend): $93.2 million
My Prediction (Final): $238.3 million
Actual Result: (Final): $195 million

X-Men: Days of Future Past
My Prediction (Opening Weekend): $80.9 million
Actual Result (Opening Weekend): $90.8 million
My Prediction (Final): $230.4 million
Actual Result (Final): $220 million

Blended
My Prediction (Opening Weekend): $29.6 million
Actual Result (Opening Weekend): $14.3 million
My Prediction (Final): $91.3 million
Actual Result (Final): $55 million

Maleficent
My Prediction (Opening Weekend): $49.0 million
Actual Result: (Opening Weekend): $69.4 million
My Prediction (Final): $155.4 million
Actual Result (Final): $180-$200 million

A Million Ways to Die in the West
My Prediction: (Opening Weekend): $24.7 million
Actual Result: (Opening Weekend): $16.7 million
My Prediction (Final): $72.1 million
Actual Result (Final): $40 million

Box Office: “Mr. Peabody” Wins The Weekend, “Need for Speed” Skids Into 3rd Place

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After a pretty impressive Thursday night, Need for Speed crashed and burned with $17.8 million. That’s far off from the recent Fast and Furious movies and is much more similar to other underwhelming video games adaptations such as Resident Evil (17.7 million) and Max Payne ($17.6 million). That’s definitely not what Dreakworks wanted with that $66 million budget, but it’s not all bad new for Dreamworks.

Mr. Peabody and Sherman only dropped 34% from last weekend, bringing in $21.2 million. That’s a great drop, but it probably won’t end up grossing as much as last year’s The Croods ($187.1 million). But, after the recent strings of disappointments that Dreamworks has witnessed, this comes as sort of a relief that the film is holding pretty well. Granted, Muppets 2 opens up next week, but there’s absolutely no buzz for it whatsoever, so I don’t think Peabody will have that much of a problem.

300: Rise of an Empire dropped as expected, Tyler Perry‘s new film bombed, Veronica Mars did well in it’s opening in select theaters and VOD, and Grand Budapest is still lighting the box office on fire in only 66 theaters. Now, because I’m feeling pretty lazy, that’s all I’m gonna write right now. Here’s the rest of the top ten below:

1. Mr. Peabody and Sherman (Dreamworks) – $21.2 million ($63.1m cume)
From 3,951 THEATERS (5,366 AVG.) / $145 MILLION BUDGET / 77% RT

2. 300: Rise of an Empire (Warner Bros.) – $19.1 million ($78.3m cume)
FROM 3,490 THEATERS ($5,473 AVG.) / $110 MILLION BUDGET / 42% RT

3. Need for Speed (DreamWorks Pictures) – $17.8 million
FROM 3,115 THEATERS ($5,714 AVG.) / $66 MILLION BUDGET / 23% RT

4. Non-Stop (Universal Pictures) – $10.6 million ($68.8m cume)
FROM 3,183 THEATERS ($3,330 AVG.) / $50 MILLION BUDGET / 60% RT

5. The Single Moms Club (Lionsgate) – $8.3 million
FROM 1,896 THEATERS ($4,378 AVG.) / BUDGET N/A / 22% RT

6. The Lego Movie (Warner Bros.) – $7.7 million ($236.9m cume)
FROM 3,040 THEATERS ($2,533 AVG.) / $60 MILLION BUDGET / 96% RT

7. Son of God (20th Century Fox) – $5.4 million ($50.8m cume)
FROM 2,990 THEATERS ($1,806 AVG.) / BUDGET N/A / 23% RT

8. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight Pictures) – $3.6 million ($4.7m cume)
FROM 66 THEATERS ($54,545 AVG.) / $16 MILLION BUDGET / 89% RT

9. Frozen (Walt Disney Pictures) – $2.1 million ($396.3m cume)
FROM 1,466 THEATERS ($1,432 AVG.) / $150 MILLION BUDGET / 89% RT

10. Veronica Mars (Warner Bros.) – $2.02 million
FROM 291 THEATERS ($6,942 AVG.) / $6 MILLION BUDGET / 76% RT

“300: Rise of an Empire” Flexes Its Way to The Top; “Mr. Peabody” Whimpers With $32 Million

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300: Rise of an Empire surprisingly topped the weekend. Now, to most of you, this might not come as much a surprise because it’s predessecor was highly successful back in 2006. However, I was just unsure how many people would actually show up to watch this one. The marketing push for this was huge, and it apparently paid off, as Rise of an Empire grossed around $45 million in its first three days.

Now, compared to the first film ($70.8 million), that opening looks weak, but it did great compared to other similar March tentpoles such as G.I. Joe: Retaliation ($40.5) and 10,000 B.C. ($35.9 million). And when you add to the fact that this sequel should have been released five years ago, this result is impressive. The film’s weak “B” Cinemascore might hurt it’s legs, but if it follows similar drops that the first one did, it should end up around $110 million when it’s all said and done.

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In second place, Mr. Peabody and Sherman became another dissapointment for Dreamworks Animation with a total of $32.5 million this weekend. With a huge budget of $145 million, you know Dreamworks must be shaking their heads right now thinking why they thought it was a good idea to make this a movie.

Kids don’t know about the characters and only parents do, but with LEGO Movie and Frozen making bank the past few months, I doubt many parents wanted to spend even more money on a kids film. I’m getting worried about how the upcoming Muppets movie will end up doing. Oh, and Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel grossed $800,000 in only four theaters. Not too shabby. Personally, I can’t wait to see it this next weekend.

NEED FOR SPEED

As for next week, the big question on many people’s minds is whether or not Need for Speed will make a splash at thebox office. Having seen it, I can say that it tries way too hard to be cool and hip, but I personally can’t see it doing more than $30 million. I think mid-20’s is a good bet for the film. That might seem a little low, but video-game adaptations usually don’t gross much at the box office (only one them has grossed above $100 million) and due to the fact that the movie isn’t very good.

Here’s the top 10 for the weekend:

1. 300: Rise of an Empire (Warner Bros.) – $45.0 million
From 3,740 THEATERS ($12,968 AVG.) / $110 MILLION BUDGET / 43% RT

2. Mr. Peabody & Sherman (DreamWorks Pictures) – $32.5 million
FROM 3,934 THEATERS ($8,261 AVG.) / $145 MILLION BUDGET / 77% RT

3. Non-Stop (Universal Pictures) – $15.3 million ($52.1m cume)
FROM 3,113 THEATERS ($4,915 AVG.) / $50 MILLION BUDGET / 60% RT

4. The Lego Movie (Warner Bros.) – $11 million ($224.9m cume)
FROM 3,290 THEATERS ($3,343 AVG.) / $60 MILLION BUDGET / 96% RT

5. Son of God (20th Century Fox) – $9.5 million ($41.0m cume)
FROM 3,271 THEATERS ($2,904 AVG.) / BUDGET N/A / 23% RT

6. The Monuments Men (20th Century Fox, Columbia Pictures) – $3.1 million ($70.6m cume)
FROM 2,001 THEATERS ($1,549 AVG.) / $70 MILLION BUDGET / 34% RT

7. 3 Days to Kill (Relativity Media) – $3 million ($25.5m cume)
FROM 2,348 THEATERS ($1,278 AVG.) / $28 MILLION BUDGET / 31% RT

8. Frozen (Walt Disney Pictures) – $3 million ($393.0m cume)
FROM 1,660 THEATERS ($1,807 AVG.) / $150 MILLION BUDGET / 89% RT

9. 12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight Pictures) – $2.4 million ($53.3m cume)
FROM 1,065 THEATERS ($2,254 AVG.) / $20 MILLION BUDGET / 96% RT

10. Ride Along (Universal Pictures) – $2 million ($129.9m cume)
FROM 1,323 THEATERS ($1,512 AVG.) / $25 MILLION BUDGET / 17% RT

Box Office Results: “Lego Movie” Keeps Building, “Pompeii” Is Disastrous

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The Lego Movie, the latest animated movie to set the box office on fire, is well on its way to pass $200 million by the end of next week as it took in $31.5 million over this weekend, brining it’s domestic total to $183.2 million. As someone who loved the movie, I couldn’t ask for more.

In second place, Relativity and EuropaCorp’s 3 Days to Kill surprisingly took second place with $12.3 million. That’s worse than the Besson-produced The Family from last September, but it’s better than what most expected it to take in. It will crash and burn next week though, as Non-Stop opens this Friday, eliminating any hope for it to have good legs.

POMPEII

In third place, the disaster flick Pompeii from Paul W.S. Anderson was just that: disastrous. Coming in with just $10.0 million for the weekend, this $100 million epic is doomed unless the overseas business is much better than it is over here in the states.

Outside the top 3, About Last Night had a huge drop off from last weekend (71%) to take in $7.4 million for the weekend. The huge drop, however, won’t affect the film much, thanks to it’s $25.6 million opening last weekend. Also, Robocop is trying to hold on, but could only muster up $9.4 million, which means we probably won’t see a Robocop 2 anytime soon.

Here are the top ten from the weekend:

1. The Lego Movie (Warner Bros.) – $31.4 million ($183.2m cume)
From 3,890 theaters ($8,072 avg.) $60 million budget / 96% RT

2. 3 Days to Kill (Relativity Media) – $12.3 million
From 2,872 theaters ($4,283 avg.) / $28 million budget / 27% RT

3. Pompeii (FilmDistrict, TriStar Pictures) – $10 million
From 2,658 theaters ($3,762 avg.) / $100 million budget / 29% RT

4. RoboCop (Columbia Pictures) – $9.4 million ($43.6m cume)
From 3,372 theaters ($2,788 avg.) / $100 million budget / 50% RT

5. The Monuments Men (20th Century Fox, Columbia Pictures) – $8.1 million ($58.1m cume)
From 3,064 theaters ($2,644 avg.) / $70 million budget / 34% RT

6. About Last Night (Screen Gems) – $7.4 million ($38m cume)
From 2,253 theaters ($3,285 avg.) / $12.5 million budget / 76% RT

7. Ride Along (Universal Pictures) – $4.7 million ($123.2m cume)
From 2,186 theaters ($2,150 avg.) / $25 million budget / 17% RT

8. Endless Love (Universal Pictures) – $4.3 million ($20m cume)
From 2,896 theaters ($1,485 avg.) / $20 million budget / 16% RT

9. Frozen (Walt Disney Pictures) – $4.3 million ($384m cume)
From 1,891 theaters ($2,274 avg.) / $150 million budget / 89% RT

10. Winter’s Tale (Warner Bros.) – $2.1 million ($11.2m cume)
From 2,965 theaters ($708 avg.) / $60 million budget / 13% RT